We do not control the borders of Iraq. The borders are porous, as reported by Paul Bremer, the civilian in charge of reconstruction in Iraq. Terrorists from Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran are invading Iraq, and to date, America has been helpless to stop them. The latest newscasts suggest at least 3,000 terrorists have crossed over. If we're going to get into any long wars and control the borders, we're going to need the troops to do it. 

Lawrence of Arabia opined it took 15 regular troops to counteract 1 guerilla, based on his experience during World War I in this area. Modern thinking posits a range of ten to twenty troops per guerrilla. If so, it doesn't take too many guerillas before we're eating substantially into our standing forces. We've been overusing the reserves and the guard, according to Senator Kay Hutchinson, and small businesses are having a hard time supporting their employees being gone.

The infusion of at least 3,000 terrorists means we may need between 30,000 and 60,000 additional troops in Iraq to counteract them. As more terrorists pour in, more American troops will be required to defeat them. Why American? Because we have not yet been successful in persuading the United Nations to join with us in this fight. We must be self-reliant. Where are we going to get the troops we need?

At the end of fiscal year 2002, the Army had 486,542 active duty military personnel organized into ten divisions. For comparative purposes, the Army had 1,596,419 troops at the height of the Korean War, and 1,570,343 at the height of the Vietnam War. The Korean War was a draw, and the Vietnam War was a loss. How can we possibly expect to conduct a serious war and win with an Army that is one third the size of what we had when we didn't win? 

In the year following the attack on the World Trade Center, our military forces increased in size by roughly two percent. That hardly appears to be an all out mobilization to fight a war for our survival. The Secretary of Defense's last force modernization plans envision reducing the size of our armed forces. Usually nations in a war increase the size of their forces. 

I believe the last recorded successful cutback in size during wartime was by Gideon when he attacked the Midianites. 

One must wonder if an Administration which has virtually no one in it who has significant combat experience knows what it is doing or takes the war on terrorism seriously. 

If we have to garrison Iraq for an unknown period, we're going to need the bodies to do it with. If we're going to have to fight the Iraqi guerrillas, terrorists from abroad, Syria, Iran, and the North Koreans at the same time, we're going to have to expand our military forces. Some may say it is exceedingly unlikely that we would be engaged in so many places at once, but I say we had better be prepared to do it since the choice may not be ours to make.  (emphasis, editor's)

Parenthetically, we might encourage the Japanese to rewrite their constitution, rebuild their military, and offer to sell them some missiles and nukes to help our trade deficit problem. That would certainly give the North Koreans and the Chinese something to mull over. More likely, we will blockade North Korea. Quarantine will require a large effort by our Navy.

However, the latest statistics from the Department of Defense, through June, 2003, show the Navy has sprung a personnel leak. The Navy has shown a net loss in personnel in seven of the last ten months. Table 2 shows the monthly change in active duty strength for the Navy since September, 2002. 

A stop loss is an order imposed by a service to freeze personnel in the service so they cannot retire or otherwise leave the service. The Navy imposed a stop loss for medical corpsmen for a short period, but this has not affected the leak. 

The Marines imposed a stop loss Corps wide from January 15, 2003 to May 12, 2003 so no one could leave. The Army imposed a series of four stop losses which basically froze the special operations and certain aviation elements in place for a period. Three of the stop 
losses have expired or will soon. 

However, the fourth, which began November 22, 2002, will remain in place for an indefinite period. It freezes members of Army Reserve units and members of National Guard units in place once their unit is activated. They will remain in their unit until 90 days following their unit's demobilization. I don't have information on the Air Force because they did not respond to my request for their policy.

In terms of recruitment, the latest statistics provided me from the Department of Defense, through June, 2003, show the major services each are meeting or somewhat exceeding their enlistment goals. That is the case in each of the nine months of the fiscal year. 

However, the Army National Guard and the Air Force Reserve are having difficulty meeting their goals. The shortfall is greater for the Army National Guard, which in several months recruited 80% of that month's goal. The shortfall for the Air Force Reserve is more sporadic. Table 3 shows the percentage of goal accomplishment by month for the National Guard and the Air Force Reserve.

It is too soon to tell how many of our military will bail out of their service when they can do so, but I expect the Army will experience attrition. George Will, the columnist, recently 
said, "Today's tempo of operations threatens the services' retention and recruitment."

Currently, it is clear the Navy has a military strength problem, the Army National Guard has a problem, and the Air Force Reserve may be developing a problem.

In no way are the services increasing in size in consonance with the requirements being placed on them. In the early 1980s, when the services had fewer requirements, they were 50% to 60% larger than they are now. 

For example, the Army was able to maintain 
a strength of roughly 800,000 volunteers.

The American middle and upper classes haven't suffered much nor given up much in support of the war on terrorism. 

Enlistment offices weren't bursting at the seams on 9/12/2001. 
How likely is it that increasing recruitment goals for an 
all-volunteer military to restore the services to the Korean War 
or Vietnam War strength levels would succeed?

The all-volunteer military was an idea forced on the services during the 1970s because the American middle class did not want to be drafted into an unpopular war. I believe we must reexamine the issues thirty years later because we need to bulk up the services to do the jobs we are placing on them. America needs to restore the draft in a fair way to do that. In addition, by drawing our military almost exclusively from the disadvantaged, America has lost out on some valuable things we once had.

Re-instituting the draft would help to reestablish some of the social glue that has held the country together. It gives large numbers the common experience of having served in the military. During the 20th century, America had cohorts who served together in the First World War, then in the Second World War, then in Korea, and then in Vietnam.

Veterans in the first three wars banded together in organizations such as the American Legion and the Veterans of Foreign Wars. These organizations provided places for socializing and a base for political activity.  Vietnam veterans were reportedly excluded from these organizations, at least for a period, but over the years the friction seems to have resolved. 

In the last thirty years, however, as the military has declined in size, the need for these types of organizations has similarly diminished.

A draft also restores the idea of the citizen-soldier as the backbone of our strength. That idea is integral to our national identity. We have diminished our sense of ourselves by relying on a class of professional American troops who are increasingly cut off from the mainstream. 

Ever since the battles at Lexington and Concord, America has relied on its citizens from all walks of life to take up arms in the defense of the country. That reliance has served us well. It makes what happens to the troops important to all segments of the American people.

People care when the military they know are issued crap weapons, or maltreated, as happened in Iraq. And the people who care are people who count and can influence policy and events. Thus, all segments of our society are involved and have a stake, and so America  doesn't treat war as yet another spectator sport.

I also talked with Ray Flynn, the former mayor of Boston, on radio last Thanksgiving. We discussed that America has lost the idea of service to the country being a desirable and decent thing. He said his son was going into the Navy, and that his "honest neighbors" were 
commiserating with him about how unfortunate that was. One sorry result of an all-volunteer military is that it sets up a separate military segment of society which risks becoming isolated from the mainstream.

Restoring the draft might help restore some of the memory of "...ask what you can do for your country..." as something Americans should give careful consideration. We need to restore the sense that the military are us, our brothers and sisters, our cousins, our aunts and uncles, our friends, people down the block, our sons and daughters, and our fathers and mothers. That way the military will have the support of the people, and the people will have greater reason to trust those who control the big guns.

Congressman Charlie Rangel pointed out on the radio that members of the military who "only wanted people who wanted to be there" were members of the Executive Branch and don't make the decision. Congress does. 

I believe some members of the military were reacting to memories of the ill-advised social experiments carried out by the arrogant and duplicitous Secretary of Defense MacNamara during the Vietnam War. 

MacNamara forced the services to accept 100,000 of the stupidest members of our society into their ranks. He did so to provide these people with experiences which would let them get jobs when they got out. To some extent, these people became cannon fodder. In the  main, they were an impediment to the services getting the job done, and it took years to flush them out of the system. 

However, a draft which provides a representative cross-section of all segments of American society will provide draftees who have the brains and abilities needed to carry out their duties ably. The military can cope; leadership is their stock in trade.

No, we must re-institute the draft in a way which will avoid the excesses and inequities of what was done during the Vietnam War. We have to construct a system free from the abuses of the past. We have to bulk up our military strength. And we have to do so in a way 
which is seen as fair by all echelons of our society. Anything less will only result in national failure. Our survival requires our success.

© Copyright David Chananie 2003 All rights reserved. 

This article is an intellectual product to use in the fight against terrorism mandated under the provisions of the Homeland Security legislation. 

And then, we have these essays in the GENERAL ESSAYS category which don't seem to fit anywhere in particular:

By Reason Alone..  That Roosevelt can do no wrong is Burroughs’s opinion; and that Burroughs is always right is Roosevelt’s opinion.  Both are agreed that animals do not reason.  They assert that all animals below man are automatons and perform actions only of two sorts—mechanical and reflex—and that in such actions no reasoning enters at all.  They believe that man is the only animal capable of reasoning and that ever does reason. 

**

Man, the Meanie of the Planet.  This is a high resolution pdf document so you can print it out and hang it on the wall.  Be sure to RIGHT Click the link, and save it to your computer.

**

God Does Not Fit  -- by Lance Nalley

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Deliberate Fraud:  Evolutionists resort to the lowest forms of fraud in order to gain more believers.

That first day of school  

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A Break From Boredom  --  by Lance Nalley

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INVICTUS... Out of the night that covers me, Black as the Pit, from pole to pole 

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The gods and Heroes of the Ancient World 

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Staunch, steadfast, loyal and true.  What better friend can a man have?

***

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Friendship, by Ralph Waldo Emerson.  A ruddy drop of manly blood The surging sea outweighs, The world uncertain comes and goes, The lover rooted stays. I fancied he was fled, And, after many a year, Glowed unexhausted kindliness Like daily sunrise there. My careful heart was free again, -- O friend, my bosom said, Through thee alone the sky is arched, Through thee the rose is red, All things through thee take nobler form, And look beyond the earth, And is the mill-round of our fate A sun-path in thy worth. Me too thy nobleness has taught To master my despair; The fountains of my hidden life Are through thy friendship fair.

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This Web is MY Web  

***

A thing of beauty is a joy forever:
Its loveliness increases; it will never
Pass into nothingness; but still will keep
A bower quiet for us, and a sleep
Full of sweet dreams, and health, and quiet breathing.

The Moon on Six Pence Uncle Bob was an unforgettable character who traveled the world on bargain rates and golden smiles!

**

The Almost Good Housekeeping monograph is a good excuse for the harried homemaker to put off until tomorrow all those burdens of yesteryear, and quit trying so hard.

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Sex before the Sax:  The first thing I learned about Lois was she had a label for being froward.  Kids at school said she had had sex with Alfred.  Not long after I arrived, another boy came forward to admit he had made a score at her door.

**

Old Rattler, and the King Snake. 

Pleasures of the open fire: The Fireplace Revisited.

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