False Dawn
I had to admit it. I was wrong! I was ecstatic when Marleen said our baby boy wouldn’t be flying here after all. He wasn’t flying here because the number of available seats were all paid for and accounted for. “That proves I was wrong about the economy. It IS turning around.”
How wonderful it felt to be wrong. I was ready to leap to my feet and start dancing. Unfortunately, I decided to call my economist first with the good news indicator that he too had missed.
Next time I’ll leap to my feet first and call him only after the jig is done. At least I would be happy for a few minutes.
It used to be that full plane seats was a sure sign of a healthy, affluent society; more people were lining up to depart because they had more money to spend. Now full seats aren’t a good indicator, said my economist. Now it is just a sign of accurate retrenching – and if it lasts beyond Easter it will be a sure sign that air lines expect the economy to shrink even more.
All things adjust to changes in the environment. When the weather warms up, buds appear on the trees and weeds sprout in the yard. Compensation is a law of nature.
Because of the sorry economy, air lines have adjusted everything that can be adjusted. They have pared off unprofitable routes entirely and cut back on the number of flights. So, the laws of nature declare that the time is right for air lines to reduce, reduce and reduce. People are like bull frogs in a stew pot; no matter how hot the water becomes, they get used to it. Now the seats are fuller because of the reductions, because those that fly are uncomplainingly rearranging their schedules to fit the restricted number of available seats.
Fuller seats, fewer flights, less crew, smaller payroll and more efficient fuel usage. That’s easy to get used to.
Furthermore, even if this were a seasonal overcrowding, the public is not spending money here, they are buying their tickets on credit. Nobody pays cash any more; credit is the way to fly today. Such spending does not prove the economy is improving, only that the public is now ready to bet someone else’s money that the economy is improving. They HOPE the economy will improve, and HOPE they won’t have to declare bankruptcy if their hopes are dashed.
In actuality this bustle of credit spending must be a sure sign that the public has become selfishly grim about its personal debt. By their nature, those institutions that put up the money for credit spending can not tell present card holders that there is no more money to spend. They can’t even reveal the credit crunch is crushing their little fairy wings by slashing the credit limits on those cards already in the hands of spenders. They know that Big Brother only provides bailouts to Big Buddies with generous pockets.
Therefore, the retrenching inside the lending institutions must be done in less obvious ways. We can expect to see fewer new cards being issued, and at the same time the limits will be tucked in nicely. Nobody in voodoo land will notice a thing, but the aggregate of available “money” will shrink. Poor people will see their access ceiling raise even as they approach it.
“So, my credit isn’t good enough?”
No, Sir. Not for a card/loan of “this” size. No Sir.
Even “wealthier” people will see their points rise to unacceptable rates. I’m sorry, their bankers will say, according to our tables you no longer qualify for special consideration. In fact, we may have to call your current note in and you’ll lose the ranch if you can’t find another lender.
The aggregate will shrink and those affected will cry and those that aren’t affected will breathe a great sigh of relief. As the bull frogs know, the water in the stew pot feels normal in just a short time.
I pray that you won’t croak before our financial waters come to a boil.
