The War on Terror

The British Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon has announced that Britain may be prepared to support American action against Iraq as part of the war against terrorism. The statement comes amidst the continuing fallout from President Bush's `axis of evil' speech earlier in the year. For some in the US administration targeting Iraq is seen as a natural progression in post-September 11 military tactics.

The reality is that Bush must proceed with the utmost caution. This writer is not about to preach on the values of pie in the sky pacifism but the knee jerk reaction to World Trade Center attack is causing increasing unease. Bush, still riding high in domestic approval ratings, has shown already that he lacks the strength and acumen to command a military campaign. Certainly, as Kissinger proved when performing a rare service to humanity and talking Nixon down from the nuclear option in Vietnam, advisers can bring caution to the White House. Unfortunately, however, the prevailing political wind in the Washington suggests that the `hawks' led by Donald Rumsfeld are shunting the less forthright Colin Powell to the outer rings of the circle of influence.

Vice-President Cheney has disappeared, forced into hiding by either terrorism or Enron depending on the level of your cynicism.

Britain, then, as the self styled leader of America's allies should really be trying to find a way of halting Bush's plans. Rather we are providing a cheerleading force. Since his desperately poor reaction to the news of the terrorist attack the White House has sought to show that Bush is a Commander-in-Chief of stature and authority. Sadly the feeling remains that the village idiot is leading the world into war. Moreover the war that he seems hell-bent on perpetuating looks to have no natural end. The objectives seem to be to end terrorism and root out all who support terrorism. In the interests of holding the alliance together this shall involve only those countries that America dislikes. Spain and Britain, amongst others, shall be allowed to deal with their domestic problems in-house. In reality the theory seems to be that the rest of the world shall be asked to fight America's enemies.

By extension, of course, any American enemy is an enemy of the free world. For as long as American foreign policy remains the contradictory ragbag that it has been since the country won superpower status those enemies shall grow. By sanctioning Bush's emotion driven response in the aftermath of September 11 Blair has agreed in principle to a war that has an infinite capacity to run and run.

The assurances that were dished out before the attacks on Afghanistan reiterated that this would not be a war as war is commonly conceived. There would be no recourse to massive troop deployments. Each and every `theatre' would involve short, sharp strikes from the air, possibly bolstered by the deployment of elite troops and aided by internal dissent on the ground, to flush out the agents of terror. Afghanistan proved that the practice is often not as smooth as the theory.

The short, sharp strike turned into something more protracted, the Taleban only fell after some stern resistance and Osama Bin Laden disappeared. They flushed him out of Afghanistan but failed to find him afterwards. No one can argue that the end of the Taleban regime is a bad thing but it should not have taken September 11 to provide a catalyst for action. The Americans had actually awarded funds to the Taleban (allies, apparently, in the war on drugs) only shortly before they turned their military might on them. It is doubtful if the advent of democracy and the end of sexual apartheid in Kabul offered much succour to Bush as he was being taunted by images of an alive and kicking Bin Laden on his TV.

The experts were wheeled out to tell us that the harbinger of evil looked tired and weak. The sound of straws being clutched at resounded across the globe.

The first chapter of the war on terror failed to realise the main objective. Plan B involved using intelligence agencies to track down the terrorists. This would be an American led operation involving the same American agencies that lost the Trade Center bombers the minute they entered the US. Arrests have been made but the mastermind is still at large. Thankfully, the US Defence Secretary
knows exactly where he is: in Afghanistan, in another country or dead. Heartening to know that such forensic minds are at work in Washington. Now we are faced with the prospect of an assault on Iraq.

If September 11 has made America more appreciative of democracy then can we expect relations with China to be put in the deep freeze?

No, and a myriad of other nations shall be left alone to pursue whichever regime they choose. America picks and chooses allies and enemies in a way that is indefensible.

Hussein's increased weapon capability is a good excuse for settling old scores. No one feels that more than Bush who seems genuinely enthralled by the prospect of rewriting the ending to Daddy's War.

North Korea, apparently included in the President's list only because two is worrying but three is a threat, might be next.

What happens then is anyone's guess. There is the possibility that Hussein shall withstand an attack for an indefinite period. How will the US react? Will Bush be able to see the dangerous mess he has stepped in to before embarking on a Vietnam for the new millennium?

Osama Bin Laden may never be caught and if he is what course shall his trial take? Shall he be taken to that relic of another golden age of American pseudo-imperialism Guantanamo Bay? Shall he be tried, if he is to be given a trial, under American or international law? These questions have never been answered.

It could be argued that the Americans are reacting to events and can't look too far ahead. Yet their reaction was delayed and that time must surely have gone into meticulous planning and deciding on tactics for every course of action. Is the likelihood not that the US shall cross each bridge they encounter in a way that is most convenient to them at the time? The reality is that this is a war that cannot be won, every martyr inspires another, every heavy handed and badly planned American intervention (be it economic, military or diplomatic) shall continue to inspire hatred. Bush should attempt a tactical withdrawal from his present course of action and redefine the American role in the world. That would take real courage and foresight and, alas, the day he proves he is capable of it is the day pigs take to the sky instead of F-17s.

Indeed in the aftermath of the New York atrocities it was Tony Blair who came closest to diagnosing and prescribing a prescription for the causes of the attack. At the Labour Conference speech Blair displayed the worst traits of his Premiership (the theatrical evangelising) but also gave the world a glimpse of the leader he might have been. The West could no longer treat the rest of the world as a whipping boy. The arrogance of our attitude would breed only more hatred. He came as close as he could to saying that, in part, we risked being the architects of our own downfall. A new world order could be created, however, if we stepped back and redefined our priorities. Blair seems to have forgotten much of this and has reverted to guarding the precious, and largely
fictional, `special' relationship between the US and the UK. He has not travelled the world working on a rescue package for the poorest African states or fostering a better understanding between cultures.

Rather he has shown himself to be inexhaustible in his efforts to hold the patchwork coalition together. In many instances this has involved grovelling to people to smooth over Bush's cock-ups.

Carpers at home have accused him of acting like President Blair but the truth is that he has become America's most tireless ambassador since Mrs. Thatcher harped on about the chemistry she had with President Regan. Blair has not so much lost the moral high ground as catapulted himself off it. As Bush perpetuates his military folly so the root of the world's problems shall stay in place.

The attack on New York was indefensible and sickening. Moreover the perpetrators deserve punishment. To go to war, however, with unseen and unknown enemies was the reaction of a government that had allowed itself to be ruled by emotion and which lacked the skill to analyse the situation properly. The world outside the US (unseen by so many of its insular residents) is not a 24-hour convenience store where the rich can pick out what they want and leave the poor to bicker over the leftovers. America has a central role to play in world affairs, and in many respects is a great country, but it must change the role it currently occupies. The emphasis now must be on rebuilding bridges, forming new alliances and, occasionally, putting the interests of others before one's own well being. The world can never be a perfect place but America can be pivotal in making it a better place. George Bush fails to realise that this will not be done by brute force. Indeed, it is doubtful if a politician who realised this would ever be elected to the White House. Corporate America wants a global village: a village divided by hatred and scarred by gang wars will not be a pleasant or safe place to live.

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